Businessman Chris Liddell on the US election: 'I think Trump can win'

New Zealand businessman Chris Liddell who had a major role in Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign told TV One’s Q+A programme that he thinks Donald Trump can win the Republican nomination and the US presidency.

“Well, I’m actually going to claim to be a bit ahead of the curve on this one. I was saying last August that I thought he had a chance. I was saying a possibility, not a probability and of winning the whole thing, not just being the Republican nominee. You know, this is just like around the dinner table, talking politics, who do we think would win? I throw on the table I think Trump can win, he says.

Asked if Mr Trump could go on to win a general election if chosen as the Republican nominee, the current Xero chairman and ex-Microsoft and GM CFO replies, "Yeah. I took some bets in August. I was given long odds that he could win the whole thing. Then I was saying it’s a very small possibility, but since then I think the odds have just got better ... I think Trump can win."

Mr Liddell says he isn’t working for anyone this election.

RAW DATA: Q+A transcript: Jack Tame interviews NZ businessman Chris Liddell on the US election

Watch the interview here and the entire show here

GREG Watching this extraordinary Republican race unfold is New Zealand businessman Chris Liddell. The former General Motors and Microsoft executive had a major role in Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. US correspondent Jack Tame caught up with him in New York and asked if he was working for anyone this time around.

CHRIS No, I’m very happy to be sitting on the sidelines for this one.

JACK So that was a conscious decision?

CHRIS Yeah. Yeah, but I’m also full-time employed in the private sector, so I wouldn’t have the time. But I’m also happy to watch this one from the sidelines.

JACK And what an election to be watching from the sidelines.

CHRIS It’s amazing. It’s certainly the most interesting one in my lifetime, not just because of the theatre which makes it interesting, but for all the things behind the theatre that are creating it.

JACK At what point, then, did you realise that Trump mania was and is a legitimate political force?

CHRIS Well, I’m actually going to claim to be a bit ahead of the curve on this one. I was saying last August that I thought he had a chance. I was saying a possibility, not a probability and of winning the whole thing, not just being the Republican nominee. You know, this is just like around the dinner table, talking politics, who do we think would win? I throw on the table I think Trump can win. I get totally…

JACK Bravo.

CHRIS …badmouthed all round. I say, ‘Well, okay, let’s put a dollar on it.’

JACK Yeah.

CHRIS Both the sort of the renegades, if you like – him on the Republican side and Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side – are attractive to a certain constituency. In Trump’s case, it’s generally speaking middle-class white people here in the US who feel like they’ve been left behind in the last 20 years because of technology, globalisation, the hollowing out of that middle class. So, yeah, he’s really connecting with those people, and he’s also seen, whether you agree or not, as an aspirational figure for those people. ‘Hey, if this person can do it in America, maybe I can.’ So, yes, I can understand it at an emotional level, not at a logical level.

JACK At what point does national security and fear come into that, then? Because August, when you first attracted Trump, was pre-Paris. That was pre the San Bernardino attack.

CHRIS It certainly feeds the whole narrative. It feeds everything associated with it, but I think it’s something deeper than that. Terrorism’s part of it, but economics is a big part of it too.

JACK So why now, then? Federal unemployment in the US is under 5%. I think wages have risen in the last six months more than any other time in the last seven years. Petrol’s historically cheap at the moment. Business optimism is relatively good compared to any other time since 2008. Why now?

CHRIS Well, that’s at an aggregate level. But you also have to understand that Trump has about 40% of the Republican vote, and let’s just assume it’s 50/50 for the sake of discussion, so that’s 20% of the population. So we’re not talking about 60% of the population voting for him or currently supporting him. We’re talking about 20%. And interestingly, Bernie Sanders has about the same on the Democratic side, so you’re talking about 40% of the respective parties, 20% of the total voting population who have for one reason or another been disenfranchised from the process.

JACK That’s amazing, isn’t it, because there is cross-over between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, people who are, for whatever reason, attracted to that anarchic, so-called anti-establishment candidate, who see likeness between them.

CHRIS Yeah, so the common themes, I would say, is the people who have lost faith in the government, they’ve lost faith in the elite who run the government, and they believe the government is no longer serving their needs.

JACK Yeah.

CHRIS In Bernie’s case, it’s young people – massively skews relative to Hillary Clinton. You know, he picks up about 80% of the people below 30. And then you have the Trump, which is again, as I said, probably white middle-class people who see the government— who have been promised all of these wonderful innovations are going to pay off for them but have seen nothing else other than essentially flat or declining wealth, and they are worried that their children are going to have a worse country than them.

JACK There have been something like 200 successful congressional filibusters since Barack Obama took office. Has that fuelled this whole ‘Washington isn’t working, anti-establishment’ movement?

CHRIS Absolutely. Dysfunction in Washington is— you ask anyone in the street, they’ll say, ‘Washington doesn’t work. It’s dysfunctional. It doesn’t get anything done.’

JACK How can Trump be stopped?

CHRIS Math might stop him. I mean, it’s more than likely now that he will be the Republican nominee. Because Trump is, you know, disliked by the Republican establishment, there is at least a scenario – it’s a small probability – that he goes to the convention with less than 50% and they gang up on him and choose someone else.

JACK I mean, and the same thing would apply for Ted Cruz, right?

CHRIS Correct, yeah.

JACK So if we’re at a brokered convention, who do you see jumping in?

CHRIS Look, it gets fascinating because it’s totally unchartered territory. You could see John Kasich, who is a very well-liked, respected, moderate, Republican—

JACK Popular governor.

CHRIS Popular governor.

JACK In a swing state.

CHRIS In a swing state. Let’s say he won Ohio, so people go, ‘Wow, okay, he can win something.’ You could see, you know, very unlikely, but someone like Mitt Romney, who I supported last time, coming back in. It becomes a totally open field, so there’s no reason why someone couldn’t be chosen from the outside who isn’t currently in the race.

JACK Have you spoken to Mitt at all about it?

CHRIS No.

JACK Would you be interested in taking on the same role as you had last time if he were to contest the convention?

CHRIS I’d think about it, but, to be honest, I’m committed. You know, I have a full-time job, so I realistically couldn’t help other than in a partial way.

JACK All right, then. Assuming Trump wins the nomination, either through winning 50% of the delegates or through somehow winning a brokered convention, can he win the general elections?

CHRIS Yeah. And, again, I took some bets in August. I was given long odds that he could win the whole thing. Then I was saying it’s a very small possibility, but since then I think the odds have just got better. So let’s assume he’s up against Hillary Clinton, which is the most likely scenario again, the most significant thing here is voter turnout. And it’s something that people don’t focus on that much, but it’s very interesting. About 55% of people, eligible voters turn out here in the US. It’s remarkably small compared to 80-ish in New Zealand. In Barack Obama’s case in 2008, very high turnout. In other cases, you know, Mitt Romney suffered because of low turnout because people just weren’t enthusiastic about his campaign and him personally. So you have these two very interesting candidates – Trump with quite a narrow base but incredible enthusiasm amongst that base.

JACK Well, that’s the thing, isn’t it? The Republican primaries have seen a really high voter turnout, and the Democrat primaries have seen a particularly low turnout.

CHRIS Exactly. Democrat primaries are down about 20% relative to 2008.

JACK Yeah.

CHRIS The number of people. Republican – up 50%. Big swing. And Hillary obviously appeals broadly but has not had a campaign with any degree of enthusiasm, so there’s a bit of an apathy factor around her. Again, I wouldn’t bet against her at the moment, but there is at least a scenario that voter enthusiasm tips the balance to make it really close. Then you throw in the, you know, random event factor, another terrorism attack like you mentioned, probably helps Trump out a little bit. Just makes people more concerned about national security, which he appeals to.

JACK An FBI investigation.

CHRIS FBI investigation. Unlikely that that’s going to indict Hillary, but the FBI’s the FBI. They’re an independent entity. They have a hundred people working on the case. Who knows what they might find. You throw that in the middle of the race, that’s unprecedented. It may not stop her campaign, but it may stop people turning out to vote for her. And I ask people a lot of times, the favourite question I ask at dinner parties to people in particular, you know, sort of under-30s is, ‘Okay, if it’s Hillary versus Donald versus don’t vote, who’s going to remember there’s three choices?’ Which one is it? And it’s surprising how many people would say, ‘I don’t really like either enough. I wouldn’t vote.’

JACK There’s been so much focus on the Republican race for obvious reasons, but actually the Democrat race has been just as interesting.

CHRIS Yeah, if I can claim a little bit being ahead of the curve on the Trump side, on the Bernie Sanders side I was right off the mark. I thought he would never rise to anything more than an interesting foil for Hillary Clinton. Here we are; he’s going to go the distance. He’s raised a lot of money from small donations, and he has a very very enthusiastic base. Again, typically young people. He now has enough funding to basically go almost through to the Democrat convention, and even if he doesn’t win, he’s standing for something and he’s going to go the distance because he’s standing for that. And he will impact the democratic race because he will force Hillary Clinton to at least drift left towards his case. So he’s a very interesting phenomenon.

JACK Fast forward to January next year.

CHRIS Yeah.

JACK Is it dangerous to have a country of 340, 350 million people represented perhaps for the first time by a president who is associated with a relative political extreme, be it Donald Trump, be it Bernie Sanders?

CHRIS I think almost inevitably – this is more relevant probably for Trump – you will see him drift to the centre, so he will be more moderate firstly in the general election and then certainly in governing than his outrageous statements of the last few months. It’s a lot about who he surrounds himself. You know, I did all the work on the transition planning last cycle, and so I know a lot about the selection of the people below it, and who you select as Secretary of State and Treasury Secretary has an incredible influence on policy as well.

JACK Right. A) Can you tell us who you’re backing, and, b) when do you get paid out on this bet?

CHRIS No, I won’t say who I’m backing, but in my bet, I get paid out on the election day. So if it wins, I— A modest bet.

JACK Very good. Thank you so much for your time.

CHRIS Thank you.

Tune into NBR Radio’s Sunday Business with Andrew Patterson on Sunday morning, for analysis and feature-length interview.