Bush pullout increases chances for TPP — a smidgen

Jeb Bush pulled out of the Republican race for president after another poor showing — this time in the primary South Carolina, a state won by his father and brother in races past.

On the face of things, Mr Bush's withdrawal is bad for the TPP. He was one of the few Republican candidates to support the trade deal (Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz strongly oppose it; third-placed Senator Marco Rubio has lately been wavering. Congress, taking its cues from the candidates and now anti-TPP Speaker Paul Ryan, has jumped on the protectionist bandwagon).

But the Republican establishment will be hoping Mr Bush's share of the vote is inherited by the centre-right John Kasich (strongly free trade), or Senator Rubio, who in all likelihood will behave in less protectionist fashion if elected.

Senator Rubio finished second behind Donald Trump in South Carolina; a good showing considering the state's relatively high percentage of evangelical voters should in theory of favoured the socially conservative Senator Cruz.

ABOVE: A $US100m war chest (easily outspending the rest of the field) could not save Bush.

Conservative commentators are looking for the field to winnow further with the Nevada race next week. That's becoming a key point of focus because from March 15 states begin awarding all delegates to the winner, rather than dividing them up proportionally. The switch to winner-takes-all will benefit Mr Trump if the anti-Trump vote is still spread across multiple candidates. 

With Jeb Bush gone, there will be establishment hopes of more winnowing next week, and a single ant-Trump candidate emerging.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton won Nevada, pushing back a strong run by Senator Bernie Sanders. Her win was narrow, but has given her supporters hope she can now hold off Mr Sanders, who earlier won New Hamsphire and finished a close second in Iowa.

A switcharound next week will see Democrats vote in South Carolina (where polls show Ms Clinton with a huge lead) and Republicans vote in Nevada — which as things stand reflects national polls for the party with Mr Trump enjoying a large lead in surveys, Senator Cruz in second and Senator Rubio in third.

Pundits see Congress voting on TPP ratification no sooner than December (the so-called lameduck session held after the November election and before President Obama formally leaves office in January). TPP rules require ratification from countries representing 85% of the GDP of the original signatories for the trade deal to come into force. The provision means the TPP must be supported by US and Japanese lawmakers. No other single country can derail the deal.

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