Brownlee relaxed about North Korean threat to nuke Australia

Defence and Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee struck a relatively unconcerned tone when asked about North Korea's threat, issued overnight, that Australia could be hit with nuclear weapons if it does not stop "blindly and zealously toeing the US line," plus the general escalation of tension between the rogue state and the US.

"I wouldn’t say [I'm] particularly worried, other than it’s a situation that is under constant monitoring," he told Q+A.

"This is a country that is economically very depressed but spending a huge sum of money sending some of those missiles into the Japan Sea and constantly threatening all those around with what they are trying to protect is some degree of military might. I think the precautions that countries, particularly on their borders, are taking are realistic."

Asked if New Zealand would follow the US if it decides to "deal" with North Korea, Mr Brownlee said, "Well, that would be something that would have to be decided at a time when you reach that point. But I think the détente that’s currently between President Xi and President Trump is pretty good, and what you’re seeing there is two countries who have an interest in the area, looking at a rogue state that is making all sorts of threats that, frankly, would be probably more concerning to China, given that it shares the border with it and has a big, big population in such close proximity."

On his Civil Defence portfolio, Mr Brownlee said that former cabinet minister Roger Sowry will chair a group that will review the structure of Civil Defence.

Mr Brownlee says elements of the agency's chain of command and communications structure — some of which date back to 1959 — need updating.

After slow and confusing communication about a potential post Kaikoura-quake tsunami threat, and effort is already under way to create a new alert system that will send text messages to all cellphones in an area struck by a civil defence emergency.

The working party is due to report back in August.

Asked about recent speculation he could succeed Murray McCully in the Foreign Affairs portfolio, Mr Brownlee dodged the question, saying it was a decision for the Prime Minister.

RAW DATA: Corin Dann interviews Defence and Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee on Q + A

Watch the video here.

CORIN DANN         Joining me now from Christchurch is Gerry Brownlee, Minister for Defence and Civil Defence. Good morning to you, Minister.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Good morning.

CORIN DANN         I wonder if I could start first with the developments in North Korea over the last few weeks. We’ve seen an escalation in tension there. A lot of troops being moved around by a number of countries. How worried are you about the escalations in the Korean Peninsula?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, I wouldn’t say particularly worried, other than it’s a situation that is under constant monitor. This is a country that is economically very depressed but spending a huge sum of money sending some of those missiles into the Japan Sea and constantly threatening all those around with what they are trying to protect is some degree of military might. I think the precautions that countries particularly on their borders are taking are realistic.

CORIN DANN         So is it a concern or not that the US seems to have changed its stance here a little bit and says it wants China to deal with this situation, and it’s made it very clear that if it is unable to deal with North Korea, then the United States and its allies will. Does that include us?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, that would be something that would have to be decided at a time when you reach that point, but I think the detente that’s currently between President Xi and President Trump is pretty good, and what you’re seeing there is two countries who have an interest in the area, looking at a rogue state that is making all sorts of threats that, frankly, would be probably more concerning to China, given that they share the border with them and have a big, big population in such close proximity.

CORIN DANN         Do we share the view that this is up to China to solve, that they need to take actions? For example, cutting oil supplies into North Korea?

GERRY BROWNLEE        We don’t take any particular view about some other country’s foreign policy. What we do say is that it will be sanctions and continued diplomacy that should be first called upon to try and resolve the situation there. The difficulty is here you’ve got a leader that people know very little about his regime, but you would assume that underneath him, there is a very big machinery of people who have equally evil intent, and so you’ve got to make sure that you think about the millions of North Koreans who are suffering under that regime at the present time.

CORIN DANN         So you are very clear that this is an evil regime. We’ve seen Australia, in fact, singled out by the North Koreans overnight, according to reports pointing out that they could be effectively caught up by Korean missiles. You’re not afraid to put your cards on the table here and say it’s North Korea that is to blame for all of this?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, it’s North Korea that’s sending the missiles into the Sea of Japan and making the various outrageous threats, including the threats overnight to Australia.

CORIN DANN         And can we trust Donald Trump? He went into the election campaign with a very clear strategy that is was America first. Since then, we’ve seen him launch missile attacks in Syria and ramp up the rhetoric on North Korea. Is it no longer America first, and how does a country like New Zealand deal with that?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, that’s a question that you’d have to put to US representatives, not me.

CORIN DANN         Well, with respect, Mr Brownlee, we do need to know from you-

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, I was just coming to that. But what I would say is that the situations in North Korea and Syria have been ongoing, and what President Trump has said, much as President Obama was saying before, is that there is an expectation that the rest of the world will assist in coming to a party trying to get rid of these regimes that are oppressive. But worse than that, also pose a threat to any nation, because the nature of that type of warfare now with rampant terrorism, random terrorism, means that no country is particularly safe from that sort of activity.

CORIN DANN         It’s interesting that we’re talking about North Korea because if we look at the Defence White Paper that was put out last year by the New Zealand Government, much of its focus really is on economic exclusion zone, the waters around New Zealand, Antarctica, and it was criticised by some Australians for not really wanting to deal with issues such as the South China Sea. Were we kind of a bit off the ball there?

GERRY BROWNLEE        No, I don’t think so. I mean, put it in perspective. The US have a military of about 1.5 million personnel. China is reducing its military to about two million personnel. So they are very, very big players. We will never ever match the capability that they have, but we can be complementary to our Five Eyes partners, and that’s the intention of the White Paper. It sets out an acquisition programme that you’d ideally execute over the next 15 or so years and maintains that we do have the interest in Antarctica. It’s the first time we’ve stated that and also boosts cyber intelligence, which is also very important in this sort of range of threats that come to us now.

CORIN DANN         But the criticism, Mr Brownlee, is that we’ve pulled our punches on criticising China, that we don’t want to criticise China, whereas Australia has gone much further.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, that’s for the Australians. What we’ve said is that the issues in the South China Sea are for the countries that are most affected to determine. But we have been very clear that we think that the UNCLOS decision should stand. We think that freedom of navigation is important, but we do note that there have been bilateral arrangements, for example, with Brunei, and it looks as though there will be some sort of bilateral arrangement with the Philippines as well, and it is their claim over territorial sea that is most affected.

CORIN DANN         Yes, but half of our trade goes through that piece of ocean, so surely we should be having a greater focus there.

GERRY BROWNLEE        More than that. A very large percentage of the world’s trade goes through those oceans because China is equally in need of them. So what we’re saying is we want freedom of navigation, freedom of passage through those areas maintained, and that’s a position that we haven’t shaken from.

CORIN DANN         But the nub of it is we’re trying to have it both ways, aren’t we? It’s that same old problem. We’ve got our Five Eyes partners here meeting this weekend. You’re welcome to confirm that for me if you like this morning, but I think that’s pretty clear, yet at the same time, we’ve got an economic relationship with China that we don’t want to upset. So are we sort of not willing to take a risk here?

GERRY BROWNLEE        No, let’s be clear. First point is that the economic relationship that China has with the rest of the world is very, very big, and the imperative for China to lift the stakes of some of the least well-off in that country are very high. When it comes to the South China Sea, we don’t take a position on whose sovereignty is preeminent over another. We simply say we support the UNCLOS decision, and we think that the bilateral discussions that are going on at the moment will lead to there being the freedom of passage-

CORIN DANN         But what if China, Mr Brownlee, is building up military installations on disputed islands and upsetting the balance in that region?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, that’s for the region to look at. It’s certainly something that we do monitor and we do discuss it. I’ve never backed away from discussing those things with Chinese military people when I’ve had the opportunity and made clear our position that we think the freedom of navigation through those areas is important, the recognition of territorial sea is important and the arrangements between countries who have those claims need to be settled on a one-to-one basis.

CORIN DANN         Sure. For the record, are the Five Eyes heads here?

GERRY BROWNLEE        I thought it was the Bollywood actor who’s down there this weekend. I thought that would be the reason for the excitement.

CORIN DANN         I mean, I think we’ve seen the planes. I mean, that does show, though, that at a time of heightened tension in the North Korean Peninsula, you’ve got bosses of the Five Eyes agencies here. What does that say about New Zealand’s relationship with those countries?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, I was a little surprised that you were able to go to Google and work out who owned the planes.

CORIN DANN         Well, it wasn’t me personally, but fair enough. Look, I wonder if we could move on to Syria and Iraq, the Isis fight. I’m sure that will be discussed by those Five Eyes bosses over the weekend. You have mentioned in your recent visit there that we would have some role post-Isis. Can you expand a bit more on that?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, look, I think the context here is Iraq is a country of 80 million people, and the vast majority of those people want to go about their lives in a peaceful fashion. You only need a city or a city area like Baghdad, where there’s about nine million people, a few thousand who are in the ratbag category who will hold the whole place to ransom. That’s the evil of terrorism. So as Iraq gets cleared of Isis, and I think it’s worth noting that it is the Iraqi security forces and the Iraqi government who’ve done that by and large, with the assistance of others-

CORIN DANN         What can we do, though, in that reconstruction?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, in the reconstruction, that’s something that we would look at at the time. There is nothing proposed at the present moment. But it’s also, I think, very important that as Isis operatives flee the Middle East that we have a very good intelligence flow to know where they’re moving to, because we don’t want them here.

CORIN DANN         Are you worried that there will be some coming back to New Zealand?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, it’s not one of those worries that you spend all night awake over, but it’s something you should be alert to.

CORIN DANN         Is there a problem with some of our defence equipment. I mean, for example, if you wanted to send some of those NH90s over to help with the reconstruction in Iraq, you wouldn’t be able to do it, would you? They’re not equipped.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, it depends what you’re suggesting. I think they’re a very capable machine. There’s no doubt about that. They certainly couldn’t fly there. No helicopter could.

CORIN DANN         No, no, I accept that, but isn’t one of the issues that they’re not fit for purpose? The helicopter is too big to ship around to take to the Pacific and do jobs.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, we’ve got the Canterbury, of course, and you can take them on the Canterbury. It’s only the air transport that we’re lacking in that regard, and that’s part of a future plan. And also as they become more operational, there is the possibility of island hopping in the Pacific.

CORIN DANN         Are you committed to them? Will you upgrade them?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Sorry, we did have one in Fiji. It was very useful at the time of Hurricane Winston.

CORIN DANN         But it’s pretty embarrassing, isn’t it, that we’ve got them effectively half-grounded, our fleet of $700 million helicopters that you can’t fly around the country at the moment?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, hang on. They are flying, it’s just that they have decided that on a safety basis, it wouldn’t be very smart until they isolate the problem that occurred about a week ago to fly over water. So they’re still flying over land.

CORIN DANN         Okay. Just very quickly, are you committed to keeping them, though? Upgrading them, doing what you have to do? Because you’ve said in the past you thought they were an ‘interesting’ purchase.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Yes, I think they were at the time, and the government of the day made that decision. They are what they are. We’ve got them. They are a very functional aircraft. They carry 19 people, up to 19 people. They’re very, very useful aircraft and getting a lot of work, I might say. So, yes, of course we’ll be keeping them.

CORIN DANN         I guess the bigger issue here is can we have confidence that when you’re about to embark on a $20 billion defence spending programme that we’re going to not have more, or what confidence is there that we’re going to get these purchases right, because there seems to be a string of them where there are problems that emerge.

GERRY BROWNLEE        I think the fact these days is that you know more about them, so the Defence Force doesn’t sort of hide any of its problems. They’re all out there. We don’t ask commercial operators to tell us how often their planes are out of action for various engineering faults and otherwise, and that’s not a criticism of anyone. It’s just reality. But the Defence White Paper with its procurement plan alongside sets out a better process for procurement so that we do have, firstly, interoperability among our own services, but then with those with those who we are closely associated with outside of New Zealand as well.

CORIN DANN         Sure. It’s been a few weeks now since the Hit And Run allegations from Nicky Hager and Jon Stephenson. Looking back, are you comfortable with the way the Defence Force handled those criticisms and allegations?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Yes, I am.

CORIN DANN         Why?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Because I think they fronted them very, very well.

CORIN DANN         It took five days.

GERRY BROWNLEE        No, no, well, five days – when you’ve got some outrageous allegations being made and they come to you as a bit of a surprise, then I think it’s not unreasonable that you take some time to go through those checks. I think that’s why people can be confident that the position taken by General Keating, supported by me, I must immediately say, is the right one, and I think the response has been appropriate.

CORIN DANN         And are you comfortable with the perception that it gives that it was the Defence Force investigating itself here? There was not an independent inquiry.

GERRY BROWNLEE        I don’t think that’s the perception-

CORIN DANN         What other perception could there be?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, it’s a perception you might have, but I talk to a lot of people out on the street, and it’s not something that’s coming through to me.

CORIN DANN         So the Defence Chief investigating an issue in the Defence Force – that’s independent in your mind?

GERRY BROWNLEE        I didn’t address that particular question. What I said was that I think it was appropriate that General Keating and his senior officers went back over all of the records and considered the allegations and then made a decision about whether further investigation was required. I think that’s the appropriate way to do it, and I am certainly persuaded that there was no need for further investigation.

CORIN DANN         Okay. If we move on to another issue that you are responsible for – civil defence. You’ve been very critical particularly around the Christchurch fires of some of the handling of the lines of communication around these types of problems and disasters that come up. What are you going to do about it?

GERRY BROWNLEE        First point I’d make is I want to make it clear that all those people who commit themselves to either rural fire or civil defence activities have my admiration. We do need them, and we want them to keep that commitment up. But it’s important that the backup structure that enables Civil Defence to do its work is fit for the time. Now, we’re working on a system that was first designed in the 1950s. It was ratified again in 2002 with some changes, further changes in 2015, actually, and I think that there is a need to look at that chain of command particularly. If you think back to the ‘50s, communication was not as easy as it is today, and it sometimes strikes me a little odd that you’re getting better news of an immediate situation from media outlets than you’re getting in situation reports. I think the key to it, though, is the whole structure of how a civil emergency is declared and then what are the authorities that anybody who has responsibility in that carries.

CORIN DANN         Could you see there ever being a day where that essential government that makes that call on a local hazard?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, I don’t think that’s something that politicians should decide, and for that reason I’ve appointed and Cabinet has approved a technical advisory group to sit down and look at the legislation. That group comprises people from police, from Defence, from Civil Defence and from the Fire Service, and they will consult with other services that are required to act in circumstances of civil emergency and also look at that structure to see how it works and how it might be improved.

CORIN DANN         Well, Minister Brownlee, one last question. A cabinet reshuffle due tomorrow. Are you expecting to be Foreign Minister tomorrow?

GERRY BROWNLEE        Look, I expect tomorrow Mr English will announce his arrangements for not only the next few months but hopefully for the years to come.

CORIN DANN         Would you like to be Foreign Minister? I mean, you’ve obviously done a lot of those issues under Defence.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Well, look, I think in the end what I want is for National to be the party that has the greatest vote after the 23^rd of September and able to form a government to continue the work that we’ve done over the last few years, and how I fit into that will be something that is determined by the Prime Minister.

CORIN DANN         Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee, thanks very much for your time this morning.

GERRY BROWNLEE        Thank you.