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Brexit: the day after

Key developments • What happens next  • UK markets recover some ground  • US markets slump  • John Key reacts  • Trump muffs it in Scotland • With special feature audio.

Sat, 25 Jun 2016
  • The official referendum result - Leave: 51.9% (17.4m votes); Remain: 48.1% (16.1 million)
     
  • Soon after the result came in Prime Minister David Cameron promised to resign by his party's October conference.
     
  • Mr Cameron said it would be up to his successor to trigger Article 50 of the European Union's founding document, The Treaty of Lisbon, to begin the two-year process of Britain leaving the EU.
     
  • The referendum was non-binding, so Mr Cameron's successor could in theory simply ignore the result. However, the bookies' clear favourite for next PM, Boris Johnson, campaigned strongly for Brexit (Mr Johnson, best known for his cartoonish stint as Mayor of London, became a Conservative MP last year).
     
  • Article 50 is vague and untested. Confusion reigns on all sides as to when and how it should be applied. EU Parliament President Martin Schulz says he is taking legal advice on the possibility of the EU speeding exit negotiations rather than waiting for a new British Prime Minister to trigger the exit process. Leaders of the remaining EU countries will meet next week to consider options.
     
  • Britain must now embark on the complex process of transitioning from EU to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules for exports and imports. A trade deal will have to be negotiated with the EU (which currently receives 44% of iUK exports) and everywhere else. NZ Institute of Economic Research deputy chief executive John Ballingall says negotiations will be tricky. British will say "Can we come in, just for the bits we like?", but EU negotiators won't allow free trade access without free immigration.
     
  • All legislation passed over the past 40 years with EU-related provisions will have to be reviewed (or 43, of you go back to Britain's entry into what was originally the Common Market).

It's now possible that by November, Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister of Britain, and Donald Trump President of the US. "Are they still taking volunteers for that live-on-Mars mission?" quips one Twitter wag.

  • The FTSE 250 slumped 11.4% in its first minutes of trading – its worst ever opening – but regained some ground to finish down 7.19%. The less UK-centric FTSE 100 was down 8.7% on opening and finished down 3.15%.
     
  • US markets slumped on with the Dow closing down 3.39%, the S&P 500 down 3.59% and the Nasdaq down 4.12%.
     
  • The British pound went into free-fall as it became clear the "Leave" camp would prevail, falling to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1985. Overnight it has regained some ground to be merely at a seven-year low.
     
  • Bank of England governor Mark Carney helped stabilise the situation by saying the central bank was ready to provide £250 billion to support financial markets.

Some economists say leaving the EU will seriously damage the UK's economy, and investors seem to agree given market reaction. For many, a more serious issue is that Brexit could mean the end of HBO's Game of Thrones. The US-owned show is partly filmed in Northern Ireland, allowing it to reap subsidies and various benefits from the EU's Regional Development Fund. The fears are unfounded. HBO's parent, Time Warner, is well-versed in wrangling subsidies from other countries, including New Zealand.

  • The New Zealand dollar was trading as high as $2.07 against the pound as results came in, but this morning had settled back to $1.92 (or just over 52 Euro cents ; before this month's Brexit frenzy the Kiwi dollar was at just over 45 Euro cents ).
     
  • The price of gold for August delivery spiked as high as $US1362 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange before falling back to $US1328 (a 5.2% gain for the trading day).

Something Joe Sixpack might not have considered when voting for Brexit: A majority of Premier League players come from outside the UK. Even Tottenham Hotspur, which caused a sensation last season when it briefly fielded a team with majority (six of 11) players from the UK, is captained by a Frenchman (Hugo Lloris, pictured). The foreign players now face possible work permit trouble. One ray of hope for football clubs (and indeed, any organisation seeking skilled staff): Boris Johnson says he's pro "fair and balanced" immigration.

  • John Key said last night the impact of Brexit on New Zealand's economy will be "limited." New Zealand will continue free trade agreement negotiations with the European Union. "We remain committed to the launch of formal negotiations on an EU FTA, and will be working with the UK as they go through the process of leaving the EU to put in place new arrangements," he said.
     
  • Investors were not quite so sanguine. The NZX fell 2.3% as Brexit results firmed near the market close. Firms with UK exposure were hardest. Xero shares fell 8.1%.
     
  • Institute of Economic Research estimated that NZ exports to the UK (running at around $3 billion per year) could drop by $190 million per year.

Pivot to the divot

  • US presidential hopeful Donald Trump muffed his lines while visiting Scotland for the opening of his upmarket Trump Turnberry golf course (a financially troubled investment, according to Reuters). Mr Trump tweeted:
  • Not quite, Donald. A majority of Scots actually voted against Brexit. Here's a breakdown:

A push is now on for Scotland to remain part of the EU, even though logistical and legal details are — like the rest of this whole process — far from clear.

Exit surveys also indicated a Brexit schism by age. A YouGov poll was typical. It found:

  • 18-24: 75% voted for Remain
  • 25-49: 56% Remain
  • 50-64: 44% Remain
  • 65+: 39% Remain
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Brexit: the day after
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