Abbott Update: Australian PM survives 'spill' motion in caucus

11.20am UPDATE: Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has survived a “spill” motion in a Liberal partyroom vote by all but two of 102 MPs and Senators.

The margin of 61 votes to 39 in the secret ballot indicates the level of opposition to Mr Abbott's leadership.

One of Australia's leading commentators, Dennis Shanahan, political editor of The Australian, says it's just a matter of time before Mr Abbott has to go:

Tony Abbott has bought some time but that’s all.

While the leadership spill motion was defeated by 61 to 39 votes the size of the support for the motion is an almost fatal blow for the Prime Minister.

It is also an almost fatal blow for the Liberal Party.

Without a a declared alternative candidate 39 out of 100 formal votes were for change.

Malcolm Turnbull was finished as Opposition Leader when he faced a vote of 38 for change.

The strongest thing Abbott still has going for him is the fear of “being like Labor” but the margin for the vote suggests there are enough Liberals to appear like Labor to set in a train a destabilsation process that last for weeks or months of debilitation for the Government.

The dilemma remains for the Liberal Party that the obvious alternative - Turnbull - is the least preferred candidate amongst Liberal voters and Abbott is preferred over Julie Bishop among Liberal voters.

The Liberals can’t win where they are and can’t win without the Liberal voter base.

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Earlier report: Polls thrash Abbott on PM's Judgment Day
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott faces a “spill” motion at a Liberal partyroom meeting in Canberra this morning (11am NZ time) amid a further drop in the polls.

In another of his unilateral decisions that have helped undermine his leadership, Mr Abbott announced yesterday the vote would be brought forward a day.

The latest Newspoll, taken over the weekend for The Australian, has produced the Liberal-National Coalition’s lowest support figures since Mr Abbott’s potential rival Malcolm Turnbull was leader.

The Newspoll also shows Mr Abbott’s own personal approval is at record lows and the most dismal ranking for any prime minister since Labor's Paul Keating in 1994.

The Newspoll reveals that voters would overwhelmingly prefer Mr Turnbull or deputy leader Julie Bishop to be prime minister instead of Mr Abbott.

But both have pledged publicly they will oppose a leadership change motion in the secret caucus ballot among 102 MPs and Senators.

However, the poll also finds that Mr Turnbull is the least popular of the three among Liberal voters, with Mr Abbott the top choice among the party faithful, followed by Ms Bishop.

The spill motion could have several outcomes.

First, if Mr Abbott wins a substantial majority his leadership will be secure – but only if he fulfills his promises to change his leadership style and regain the confidence of his backbenchers.

A second scenario is that the motion succeeds, making the leadership open to a further ballot. This would allow Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop to put forward their names.

A further contender could be another cabinet minister, Scott Morrison.

Third, if Mr Abbott gains only a slim majority his leadership will remain uncertain, something the Liberals have sought to avoid because of comparisons with the three years of turmoil in the Australian Labor Party from 2010.

Although recent Australian politics have a reputation for instability, up to 2010 only two prime ministers have been unseated while in office during a 65-year period.

They were the change from Bob Hawke to Mr Keating  and from John Gorton to William McMahon while the Coalition was in power.

The Australian's report of the Newspoll shows the Coalition’s primary vote is down three points to an eight-month low of 35% – 10 points below the election-winning result in September 2013.

Labor is up two points to 41%, marking the first time the primary vote has been above 40% since July 2010. The Greens were unchanged at 12%.

In two-party terms, based on preference flows from the last election, the government’s vote has crashed to 43% with Labor on 57%. 

The poll of 1178 people found that on a head-to-head basis voters believed Mr Turnbull, who signalled he could be a candidate if the spill motion succeeds, was the best person to lead the Liberal Party as prime minister.

But Mr Turnbull was supported mainly by Labor voters while Liberal voters preferred Mr Abbott to Mr Turnbull by 54% to 40%.