A budding Asia Pacific region sprints ahead

COMMENT

For a long time it seemed all the interesting world events occurred in Europe, on the Eurasian land mass or in the Americas. The Asia Pacific region always existed but it was home to small economies separated from the centres of the world by thousands of vast oceans.

Yet despite smoke on the horizon, the Asia Pacific is shifting the world’s centre of gravity as money – seeking legacy and glory – flocks to many of the budding economies in the region.

In the early 21^st century, the perception of the Asian backwater has transformed.

Gone are the days when political machinations of the Indian subcontinent, steady economic growth in South East Asia or the social grievances of a vast Chinese population might have slipped unnoticed through the headlines of the world’s news.

The truth is that Asia Pacific will be home to an enormous percentage of humanity in coming decades.

Accompanying this expansion will be internal stresses and external belligerency as each burgeoning nation carves out areas of influence in their shared backyards.

As Asia Pacific grows, the rest of the world will stagger on at a tortoise’s pace.

A shifting centre of gravity

Europe, potentially strong if it chooses to stick together, is a shadow of its former self. The European Union and the structure of Nato should have tucked in the blankets around Europe, but important political obstacles were immovable.

In a similar vein, Russia is still a resource-based economy, a dangerous position for any country. President Vladimir Putin’s blinkered focus is to diversify the nationm’s monomaniac economic portfolio, but Russia is far from a dominant political force and slips further from that podium with each passing year.

Africa and South America are nascent continents with great potential but unfavourable geography. Both regions will continue to grow in power as individual nations learn to better leverage their vast demography and natural resources for maximum gain.

But the most dynamic of the world’s major regions is the Asia Pacific. The fastest growth powered by developing economies come from here, and things are speeding up.

Nevertheless, it is a mix of worrisome stories and heartening tales.

For instance, tensions raged this week after a Taiwanese fisherman was shot and killed near disputed waters by the Philippine coast guard. Taipei issued a formal 72-hour ultimatum to Manila for an apology, which Philippine President Benigno Aquino offered on May 15.

Taiwan’s aggressive stance against the Philippines reflects a weak ability to reinforce its territorial claims over the disputed waters.

China could use Taiwan’s spat to justify its own aggression in the South China Sea. Beijing has been looking for more reasons to increase its influence in those waters. The many many territorial rights claims in the congested Asian littoral seas keep regional tensions alarmingly high.

Further north, tension on the Korean peninsula have calmed since the boilover some weeks ago. North Korea continues to issue threats, but their patron in Beijing is losing patience.

Several of China’s largest banks will cease all financial dealings with the North Korea Foreign Trade Bank in an effort to tighten the fraying leash tied to the belligerent state.

Few Asia Pacific nations want to see a swift collapse of the North Korean regime. The refugee crisis alone would dominate politics for months, possibly years.

While China’s banking curbs may not alter the situation, it demonstrates to the world Beijing’s willingness to help calm North Korea, rather than continually relying on American intervention.

More good news

Across the strait, Tokyo’s new government is making an extra effort to expand ties with its Asian neighbours to compete with a rising Chinese presence. With a changing financial framework, Japan has an historic opportunity to push for greater leadership among Asean states.

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party may even be considering a positive rebrand as the Democratic Republic of Vietnam. As the country takes more notice of popular debate amid an invigorated regional environment, the ruling party is pondering ways to strengthen its legitimacy to better respond to territorial disputes and contested natural resource claims.

Even further south, after last week’s high-stakes elections, news from Malaysia appears to dampen fears of an economic downturn. Growth expanded, year-on-year, by 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 5.3 percent in the third quarter.

Strong domestic investment and good financial policy will boost its economy in the short to medium term.

These examples only scratch the surface of events in the Asia Pacific region. As economies expand and demographics boom, the fault lines spreading like shattered frost throughout the region will be carefully mapped.

Expanding natural economic interdependency stemming from globalisation and advances in technology have kept the region from bursting into flames. But those constraints are changing as national imperatives take increasing precedence over regional stability.

Despite looming dangers, Asia Pacific should continue to grow as a cosmopolitan region with huge potential as a peaceful paradise.  

Nathan Smith has a Bachelor of Communications in Journalism from Massey University and has studied international relations and conflict.