3News-Reid Research poll sees big post-Hager bounce for Conservatives

The latest 3News-Reid Research poll shows that the Conservative Party is on the verge of making it into the next Parliament, even without an electorate deal with National.

The poll, conducted in the week following the release of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book, has the Conservatives on 4.6%, tantalisingly close to the 5% MMP threshold.

It also found 63% of voters overall and 43% of National voters want Judith Collins stood down.

On July 28, Prime Minister John Key said National would only do MMP electorate deals with ACT and UnitedFuture. His party was still open to a post-election deal with the Conservatives.

Commentator Matthew Hooton said National had rejected the idea of a deal for Mr Craig in East Coast Bays because internal polling showed it would alienate fiscally conservative but socially liberal urban voters.

The Conservatives' move to make binding referenda a bottom line has also been problematic.

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UPDATE — Full results (via Curiablog)

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First, or with the Maori Party and ACT and UnitedFuture.

Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Party Support

• National 45.0% (-2.5%)
• Labour 26.3% (-2.6%)
• Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.3% (nc)
• Maori 0.7%  (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 2.1% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 6.3% (+1.7%)
• Conservative 4.6% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

Preferred Prime Minister:

John Key 41.4 percent, down 2.7 percent
David Cunliffe 11.1 percent, up 1.2 percent

Should John Key stand Judith Collins down?

Yes 63 percent
No 28 percent
Don't know 9 percent

National voters:

Yes 43 percent
No 46 percent
Don't know 9 percent

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx