2016 Oscars: Who will win and who should win

The Hollywood awards season ends on Monday (New Zealand time) with the presentation of the 88th Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

The voting cards by the academy's 13,000 members are in and are being counted for the televised Sunday night (local time) show that will be watched around the world.

Here are NBR ONLINE's tips of who will win the major categories and (this being the Oscars) who should have won.

Best picture: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Will win: The favourite has long been The Revenant and nothing has changed since its release at New Year. The wilderness revenge epic, set in northern Canada, has grossed $2.8 million at the New Zealand box office, slightly more than The Martian ($2.6m) and Mad Max: Fury Road ($2.5m). If there is a better film than The Revenant, and this time there are two, they are Spotlight, the forensic retelling of a Boston Globe investigation into child abuse in the Catholic diocese of Boston, and The Big Short, a sharp and satirical examination of Wall Street.

Best actor: Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Matt Damon in The Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl
Will win: No one's a hotter favourite than Leonerdo DiCaprio and no one should take it away from him.

Best actress: Cate Blanchett in Carol, Brie Larson in Room, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years, Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn
Will win: Brie Larson in the little-seen Room (only $108,000 at the NZ box office) will edge out the much more experienced Cate Blanchett. Should win: Saoirse Ronan, who was nominated for a Bafta for her role in Sir Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones (2009).

Best supporting actor: Christian Bale in The Big Short, Tom Hardy in The Revenant, Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight, Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, Sylvester Stallone in Creed
Will win: The sentimental favourite Syylvester Stallone in a reprisal of his Rocky role. Should win: Mark Rylance's quietly spoken Soviet spy in The Bridge of Spies.

Best  supporting actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara in Carol, Rachel McAdams in Spotlight, Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs
Will win: Alicia Vikander was also admired for Ex Machina. Should win: Rooney Mara for a performance that matches co-star Blanchett and romantic partner in the stylish Carol.

Best director: The Big Short, Adam McKay; Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller; The Revenant, Alejandro G Iñárritu; Room, Lenny Abrahamson; Spotlight, Tom McCarthy
Will win: Alejandro G Iñárritu will be the first to win this back-to-back since Joseph L Mankiewicz in 1950 and 1951. Should win: Tom McCarthy

Best foreign language film: Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia; Mustang, France; Son of Saul, Hungary; Theeb, Jordan; A War, Denmark
Will win: Hungarian Holocaust drama Son of Saul has only just begun its local run after a debut at last year's Jewish Film Festival. Mustang, a feminist black comedy set in Turkey, is the only other nominee to have screened here. 

Adapted screenplay: The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay; Brooklyn, Nick Hornby; Carol, Phyllis Nagy; The Martian; Drew Goddard, Room, Emma Donoghue
Will win: Wall Street shenanigans in The Big Short beats all else on show.

Original screenplay: Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman and Ethan and Joel Coen; Ex Machina, Alex Garland; Inside Out, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Spotlight, Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy; Straight Outta Compton, Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff
Will win: Spotlight – the best newspaper film since All the President's Men is also this year's best.

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