Whichever way you look at it, Simon Bridges’ decision to leave politics is a big blow to the National Party.
Bridges, who only took over as finance spokesperson in December, was beginning to make traction on the economy, but now that work will be left to his successor Nicola Willis. Will she be as effective as Bridges proved to be in just three short months?
National also loses a lot of political experience with Bridges’ departure and its alternative government looks light on experience. None of that is insurmountable but just as National is making real ground in the opinion polls, the loss of an effective and experienced MP comes at an inopportune time.
Leader Christopher Luxon has only been in Parliament 18 months and could benefit from having a core of politically experienced people around him. That might be why he elevated Paul Goldsmith to No 5 in the rankings, given Goldsmith’s previous experience as a government minister.
But it also raised questions about what Goldsmith had done to be rehabilitated after losing the finance portfolio following the 2020 election because National had botched its costings of its policies.
Other former ministers, such as Michael Woodhouse, Judith Collins, and Todd McClay remain well down the pecking order. Gerry Collins too, is at 15, just one ranking higher than he was before Bridges’ resignation sparked a caucus reshuffle.
Aside from Goldsmith at five, Luxon has his deputy leader Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and Dr Shane Reti as his top team. None of the latter three have ministerial experience, although both Willis and Bishop worked in the Beehive before becoming MPs.
Strategic nous?
But will they be able to provide the tactical and strategic nous Bridges says many politicians possess?
Nor would National necessarily look forward that much to a by-election in Tauranga. In some ways, it has nothing to gain by winning a seat it already holds, albeit only by a margin of 1856 votes. If it struggles in the by-election that could dent its growing confidence.
On the other hand, a by-election gives it a further opportunity to attack the government’s record and promote its own policy alternative. It could also act as a dry run for Luxon ahead of next year’s general election campaign. It would toughen him to the rigours of campaigning at a national level.
Media have begun speculating that New Zealand First leader Winston Peters might return to the seat he first won in 1984 as a National candidate before being ousted in 2005 by National’s Bob Clarkson. Bridges then contested the 2008 election, after Clarkson stood down, and defeated Peters again.
Would Peters want to suffer the humiliation of a third defeat in a seat he had held for 21 years? It is also a much different electorate to the one he represented and he has long been absent from the city.
Of course, one of the key issues for the by-election will revolve around the cost-of-living crisis National has campaigned on for the past few months.
In response to that, the government did announce a 25c-a-litre cut in the fuel tax for three months to ease pressure on household budgets. Road user charges will drop by a similar amount and the cost of public transport will be halved.
Polling pressure
The government was likely reacting to recent opinion polls, a couple of which have National holding a slender lead over Labour and holding out the prospect of a change of government in 2023. At the same time, ministers could not have ignored the impact of rising oil prices on the cost of petrol and the pressure it put on the cost of living.
Inflation was 5.9% last year and the ANZ is predicting it will go as high as 7.4%. It has been a long time since inflation was that high and there is little doubt higher costs are squeezing the incomes of many families.
There was some good economic news this week, with GDP figures showing the economy grew at a healthy rate last year, although that compares with 2020, which was ravaged by the nationwide Covid-19 lockdown. Most economists are expecting tougher times ahead, too, particularly if the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to put upward pressure on oil prices. An oil shock of that nature inevitably leads to a contraction in economic activity.
The Government argues, though, that the latest GDP figures show the economy remains resilient and it will be hoping its decision to open the border to international tourism earlier than planned will also help give the economy a boost.
Further relaxation of Covid restrictions
Next week there will be an announcement of further relaxation of Covid restrictions, such as vaccine passes and mandates, as the Omicron outbreak passes its peak, and this too should help economic activity.
Much will depend on how consumers respond. Even if restrictions are eased, there is no guarantee consumers will open their wallets and flock back to bars, cafés and restaurants. Nor is there any guarantee there will be a surge in international tourism.
All of this is the context of the Tauranga by-election, which is likely to be held just as winter starts to bite.
