This is the time of the year when political pundits pick the best and worst politicians of the year and Beehive Banter is no different.
But a disclaimer. Much of the assessment is based on perception, not necessarily reality but, as NBR presenter Grant Walker has told me repeatedly this year, perception is reality in politics.
For Walker, Finance Minister Grant Robertson has had another stand-out year, not that every reader of NBR would agree. Walker says Robertson is always a greater performer, very articulate, handles the media well, and is funny, smart, and intelligent.
But if you judged Robertson on the state of the economy, would you reach the same conclusion? Economic activity was relatively robust in 2022 but inflation made life tough for struggling households and interest rates kept going up.
Robertson also injected a lot of new spending into this year’s Budget, although, in the following years, government spending as a proportion of GDP is forecast to fall. Just how Robertson is judged as finance minister might depend on what happens next year. If he can engineer the soft landing for the economy, he will get all the kudos he deserves. But if economists are right and the country goes into recession and unemployment starts shooting up, the judgement might be quite different.
While Walker has a lot of time for Robertson he says his Labour politician of the year is Justice Minister Kiritapu Allan, who came through a health scare and then handled herself with aplomb in her ministerial job. Again, Walker makes a judgement based on how well she handles interviews, and he says she comes across as a very confident and competent minister.
He picks retiring MP Poto Williams as his worst performer. She lost both the police and building and construction portfolios this year as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tried to limit the political damage to Labour, particularly in the face of Opposition attacks on the Government’s record on law and order.
Justice Minister Kiritapu Allan.
Perception is everything
Walker says the perception was Williams was ineffective and “perception is everything”. To be fair, though, since Labour’s Mr Fixit – Chris Hipkins – became Police Minister, there has been no let-up in the political pressure on the Government.
Walker also thinks Health Minister Andrew Little has had a bad year but he acknowledges health is a tough portfolio for any minister.
Little has, however, implemented the reform of the health system and nurses are finally getting their pay equity deal even as they continue to argue about back pay.
Perception is reality in politics.
Surely the biggest political loser of the year must be Dr Gaurav Sharma, who finishes 2022 no longer an MP after his vendetta against Labour badly backfired on him. Labour’s Rongotai MP Paul Eagle also had a year to forget after his ill-fated bid for the Wellington mayoralty ended in defeat. He too is now quitting national politics at the next election.
Going back to those who have had a good year, though: a minister Walker does not mention – although who described as looking prime ministerial last week – is Transport and Immigration Minister Michael Wood. He might have been late but the freeing up of immigration settings late in the year appears to have largely been welcomed by sector groups.
Walker is dismissive of the Green Party, saying it has had an average year. No-one shone and he describes the whole debacle over the James Shaw co-leadership row as a massive own goal from which the Greens have never really recovered.
Green Party co-leader James Shaw.
That is the perception, but the reality is somewhat different. The Greens are still polling strongly, better than what they got at the last election, and continue to buck history, which has seen every previous government support party lose votes. Many of its MPs have been effective as the Greens have advocated strongly on issues from climate change, the environment, poverty, and immigration to beneficiary rights.
Te Pāti Māori has also had a good year, with its co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi sticking true to their principles. Support for the party appears to have bumped up, suggesting that as long as Waititi holds on to his Waiariki seat, the party could get one or two more MPs into Parliament.
The Opposition
Meanwhile, the Opposition end the year in pretty good heart.
Walker picks National deputy leader and finance spokesperson Nicola Willis as National’s politician of the year, saying she has gone from strength to strength. She has performed a lot better than he expected.
Willis has been a strong performer, holding the Government to task over the cost-of-living crisis and repeatedly criticising the Reserve Bank for its conduct of monetary policy.
But surely National’s politician of the year has to be leader Christopher Luxon. While he has made gaffes, the party is now in a position that it is likely to lead the next government. A year ago, when he took over the leadership, no-one would have put money on National. The party was a mess and it was polling dismally.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon and deputy leader Nicola Willis.
While its polling now might not be a strong as some would like, if recent polls translated into an election result, it would lead the Government in coalition with Act.
Plenty of people compare Luxon with former National Prime Minister John Key in a negative way. But when Key became leader of National, he had already been an MP for three years – Luxon just one – and National’s support was on the rise, with the party nearly doing enough in the 2005 election to form a government. Compare that with what Luxon inherited last year.
Those who did not have a good year in National include new Tauranga MP Sam Uffindell and Taranaki-King Country MP Barbara Kuriger. If National does form the next government, it is difficult imagining either of them playing significant roles.
The ‘arrogant prick’
David Seymour and Jacinda Ardern.
Meanwhile, the Act Party has also had another strong year, with its leader David Seymour – the man Ardern muttered under her breath in Parliament was an ‘arrogant prick’ – again performing well. (Ardern and Seymour soon after signed a framed copy of the ‘arrogant prick’ Hansard transcript to auction for charity, left.)
But Act’s other MPs have also put their heads down and worked diligently in select committees while pushing their own agendas in the portfolios they are responsible for.
Walker thinks Act’s deputy leader Brooke van Velden has had a great year but for Walker Seymour is not just Act’s politician of the year but wins the overall award across all parties.
Seymour certainly has dragged Act back from the abyss over the past couple of parliamentary terms and now faces the prospect the party could be an influential cog – and not just a bit player – in the next government.
But there is an election to come and no party should take what happens next year for granted.
Brent Edwards is NBR’s political editor.
