William Shakespeare probably did not expect to be at the centre of a political brouhaha more than 400 years after his death.
But when Creative New Zealand decided not to fund the Sheilah Winn Festival for secondary schools it set off a cacophony of outrage, particularly when one of the assessors wrote that “this genre was located within a canon of imperialism”.
Later Creative New Zealand made it clear it did not hate Shakespeare. It simply did not have enough money to fund everything. Under pressure, with critics accusing the Government of being woke, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stepped in and announced money would be forthcoming.
It appeared as though the festival had been saved, largely because of political pressure. The reality was – as The Spinoff pointed out – that the $31,000 funding application from the Shakespeare Globe Centre New Zealand was just a tiny portion of the cost of the festival. It had never been under threat because that money made up about 10% of SGCNZ’s budget.
A little bit of political outrage, though, can go a long way. Long enough to prompt a prime minister to somehow find $31,000 elsewhere.
Which raised some ire among university staff, who have been taking industrial action in support of their pay claims. As they point out, both Ardern and Education Minister Chris Hipkins have kept this dispute arm’s length, saying it is a matter for the universities who employ that staff. But can’t Ardern and Hipkins find a little bit more money – admittedly much more than $31,000 – to help settle the dispute?
Maybe the Government just does not view that dispute as politically problematic as the Shakespeare controversy.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
High inflation
What is seriously problematic for the Government is stubbornly high inflation. This week the consumer price index for the 12 months to the end of September recorded an increase of 7.2%, just marginally below the previous quarter’s annual figure of 7.3%.
It was much higher than economists had been anticipating and in the three-month period prices shot up 2.2%. Much of it was driven by domestic inflation, with vegetable prices rising sharply. Anyone filling their supermarket trolley knows just how costly things have become.
It is particularly difficult for low-income households with less discretionary spending to cut back.
High inflation – and the ever-increasing interest rates which accompany it as the Reserve Bank uses its crude tool to rein in price rises – is also bad news for the Labour Party. It might have been hoping inflation would start to show signs of easing, giving hope that in election year the Reserve Bank might also ease its tightening of monetary policy.
But some economists are picking the bank will still be raising rates early next year and NBR presenter Grant Walker is predicting it won’t be long before mortgage interest rates start with an '8'. For those who have bought near the peak of the housing market that is going to really hurt.
Already opinion polls show support for Labour slumping. It could get worse if most people, which is likely, blame it for rising prices and interest rates.
Inflation poses a threat to Labour's election prospects. Illustration: Michael Hickmott.
Labour’s unwanted by-election
In the meantime, Labour faces the prospect of a by-election it did not want.
Former Labour MP Dr Gaurav Sharma has resigned from Parliament, saying he was aware the party had a plan to use the waka jumping legislation next year to eject him from Parliament. He provided no evidence to support his claim and Ardern and other senior Labour figures say they never considered the prospect.
Now though all eyes are on Hamilton West. Will it be a referendum on the Government’s performance, less than a year out from the general election.
This is a seat National has held previously so it has a good chance of regaining it, particularly given Labour’s nationwide polling and the contentious circumstances that have led to the by-election.
Hamilton West and East, though, are also seen as bellwether seats. Whichever party wins them appears to also be the party which forms the Government.
Walker picks some pundits will criticise National if it does win the seat – if it does not win big.
All National really needs to do is win the seat. In the last eight elections there have never been huge majorities for the winner. Over those eight elections the average majority is 4,174, with the two major parties splitting it four each.
Any loss for a governing party in a by-election is bad news, but by getting it done and dusted before Christmas Labour will be hoping any negativity from a loss won’t run into election year.
What would be a disaster for National is if it could not win the seat, given the Sharma controversy and current worries about high inflation and rising interest rates. It will also be an opportunity for the party to put some of its election strategy into play and for relatively new leader Christopher Luxon to get a taste of what next year’s general election campaign will be like.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon.
The general election
How far away will that be because at the weekend New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said a snap election was possible.
Walker suggests it would be better for the Government to go early before the economic news got worse.
But it seems unlikely. The Government, which has a majority in its own right, could put up no legitimate reason for going to the polls early. It would smack of desperation and likely be punished by the electorate.
All Labour can do now is hold its nerve, hope the summer goes well and that next year prices ease and the Reserve Bank stops hiking interest rates.
Brent Edwards is NBR’s political editor.
