Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will head to Waitangi today most likely satisfied with his week’s work.
In his first full week in the job, Hipkins got a boost at the beginning of the week with a couple of positive polls before he announced his Cabinet reshuffle and the extension of the support to truckers, motorists, and commuters to help cushion the blow of high inflation.
In announcing his reshuffle, Hipkins made the point this was his decision even though former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had announced before Christmas she was going to be making changes to the ministerial line-up.
He was helped by the fact that four ministers – including Ardern – had announced they were leaving politics. That gave him plenty of room to make significant changes without axing anyone.
That, however, did not save Phil Twyford, who was dumped as a Minister outside Cabinet. Twyford still appears to be bearing the brunt of the blame for the failure of KiwiBuild when he was Housing Minister in Labour’s first term.
The most significant changes in the line-up included stripping Nanaia Mahuta of her local government portfolio and taking health off Andrew Little.
In both cases, Hipkins likely determined the individual – whether unfairly or not – was an obstacle to smoothing over troubled waters in their portfolios.
In the case of Mahuta, she had lost the public argument around Three Waters reform as it got mired in accusations of theft and handing control to Māori. As a Pākehā male, her successor Kieran McAnulty might not attract some of the same invective Mahuta had to put up with.
Nanaia Mahuta lost the local government portfolio on the Cabinet reshuffle.
Reform changes
The change also makes it easier for the Government to make changes to the reform process. Hipkins has made clear it will not be dumped but he has signalled change is coming.
Making those changes – which are still not likely to go as far as some of the reform’s opponents would want – will be easier done by McAnulty.
In a similar way, Little had become the target of much of the grumpiness in the health sector, despite a big boost in health spending and steps taken to address wage disparities under his watch.
The new Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall is expected to take some of the heat out of the health debate, given her own experience in the sector and close links to those working in it.
In other changes, Michael Wood rose in the Cabinet rankings and, while keeping his existing portfolios, was given the new role as Minister for Auckland. Just what that will mean is yet to be determined.
Wood will presumably have to spend more time talking to Auckland mayor Wayne Brown but just what his relationship with the council will be is unclear.
As expected, former school principal Jan Tinetti picks up education, which was left vacant by Hipkins’ elevation to the top job. She was anyway doing much of the heavy lifting as Associate Education Minister.
Stuart Nash reclaims the police portfolio he held in Labour’s first term, while Peeni Henare lost the defence portfolio to Little.
Back in front
New Defence Minister Andrew Little.
The reshuffle came a day after Labour recorded better-than-expected results in two opinion polls and is back in front of National after a long time of lagging behind.
NBR presenter Grant Walker thinks – on the numbers in both the 1News Kantar Public Poll and the Newshub Reid Research poll – the election could end in a hung Parliament, with neither the centre-left nor centre-right blocs having enough votes to govern.
Walker suggests to break the deadlock, the National Party might do a deal with The Opportunities Party in Ilam, where TOP’s leader Raf Manji is standing. Stranger things have happened but it would rule out TOP’s argument that it could work with either major party.
In another populist move, Hipkins announced on Wednesday the fourth extension of the 25-cent cut to the petrol tax and half-price public transport until the end of June. As well, the road user charge discount will be re-introduced, also until the end of June.
Kieran McAnulty and Chris Hipkins.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson, who in December said the Government could not afford to continue the schemes, explained the about-turn by simply pointing out he had a new boss.
It would be safe to bet that, in June, the schemes will be extended again, this time until beyond the October 14 election.
While Hipkins has barely been in the job much more than a week, it now seems like an age ago that Jacinda Ardern was Prime Minister. After spending the weekend at Waitangi, the new Prime Minister will fly to Canberra on Tuesday to meet his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese.
Then, a week later, Parliament resumes and he will face his first Question Time as Prime Minister. Who will that be more daunting for? Hipkins or Opposition leader Christopher Luxon?
Brent Edwards is NBR’s political editor.
