Farmers have largely got what they wanted with the release of the He Waka Eke Noa report, but now the focus in on how the Government will respond.
Under the recommendations in the report, largely drawn up by the sector itself, farmers will measure their own farm emissions and pay different rates on methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions from 2025. Already Greenpeace has labelled the report a lemon and the Green Party is dissatisfied with its findings.
If the Government adopts its recommendations farmers will avoid being included in the emissions trading scheme, which would require from them much more effort to cut emissions or pay the price.
Under He Waka Eke Noa farmers will pay more for farm emissions – they pay nothing now – and the report finds it will have an impact on profitability, with an expected hit to farm profits of up to 7.2%. Deer, sheep and beef farms will be affected more than dairy farms.
Much might depend on how farmers can change farm practices and adopt new technologies to reduce emissions. The Government committed hundreds of millions of dollars in the budget to help them do just that.
At the same time the latest primary sector outlook forecasts good times ahead, with dairy exports expected to earn $22.5 billion in the year to the end of June 2025, compared with $19.09b last year. Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to rise to $11.7b from $10.39b last year. Most other export types in the primary sector are also doing well.
Farming continues to do well.
Despite that though some farmers still feel put upon by the Government as it puts pressure – critics would say gentle pressure – on them to cut emissions.
Meanwhile, the Kapiti Coast north of Wellington has been hit by tornadoes, and climate scientists warn the window in which to act to limit global warming is closing fast.
Change too slow
In the Government’s case it has adopted the approach of trying to win multi-party support for its climate policies to avoid policy reversals when there is inevitably a change of government. But for climate change activists this means change is too slow in coming.
DairyNZ, which was one of 11 primary sector and Maori farming organisations involved in He Waka Eke Noa, welcomed the recommendations.
Its chair Jim van der Poel said the system was expected to reduce methane emissions by between 4.4-5%.
That should come on top of an expected 1.4% drop in emission in the year to the end of June 2022.
Ironically farmers, who have vehemently opposed a form of co-governance for three waters infrastructure, have proposed a co-governance structure to run the farm emissions pricing system. Under the proposal a System Oversight Board would work closely with an Independent Maori Board to recommend levy rates, prices and incentive discounts, and set the strategy for the use of levy revenue.
“A collaborative governance structure will give our sector representation in levy price setting, where the goal will be prices kept as low as possible, while still meeting our commitments and adjusted as needed,” van der Poel said.
Now the report has been delivered, the Government will wait for advice from the Climate Change Commission on its recommendations before making a decision later in the year, after more consultation with the sector and the public.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw.
Vague response
Climate Change Minister James Shaw was suitably vague in his response to the report.
“We need to urgently cut emissions across all sectors of the economy and that includes agriculture. There is no question that we need to cut the amount of methane we are putting into the atmosphere, and an effective emissions pricing system for agriculture will play a key part in how we achieve that,” Shaw said.
But is the system being proposed by He Waka Eke Noa an effective one?
The Climate Change Minister would not say. But as Green Party co-leader Shaw appeared less than impressed.
The National Party also refused to be drawn on the report, with its climate change spokesperson Scott Simpson saying it would wait to see the advice from the Climate Change Commission before making any judgement about whether the proposed system would help lower emissions as part of the effort to limit global warming.
National Party climate change spokesperson Scott Simpson.
Talking of hot air, former Labour minister Richard Prebble provided a bit last week, with the suggestion that the Government might call a snap election. He cited rising inflation and the calls from the OECD for the Government to possibly delay some of its spending as reasons for going to the polls early.
NBR presenter Grant Walker suggests the Government might be better to go to the polls this year, rather than wait until 2023, when mortgage rates might start with a "7" and “god knows how much petrol will be”.
Yet the Government has no legitimate reason to call an early election. It can govern in its own right and continues to have strong support from the Greens.
Prebble’s suggestion is likely mischief making.
Tauranga by-election
There will be an election this Saturday, though, when the voters of Tauranga choose who gets to replace former MP – and now NBR columnist – Simon Bridges.
As expected, the by-election campaign has largely fallen flat outside the city, with National candidate Sam Uffindell expected to win comfortably ahead of Act candidate Cameron Luxton and Labour’s Internal Affairs Minister Jan Tinetti. The big question is: how much will Uffindell win by?
If he wins big expect National to paint it as another example of public disillusionment with the Government. Labour will brush it off, arguing Tauranga is a true, blue seat.
But if the margin is smaller than anticipated Labour will likely try to claim some sort of moral victory. Act, of course, will be hoping for a good result for its candidate so it can continue to press its case as a party of substance heading into next year’s (not this year’s) general election.
Finally, questions still swirl around Police Minister Poto Williams and Parliament’s Speaker Trevor Mallard as Opposition parties attack the credibility of both.
With a series of shootings in Auckland, the result of growing gang tensions in the city, Williams is being blamed, with National saying frontline officers have no confidence in her. Ardern has expressed confidence in her but stopped short of saying she would remain Police Minister when the Cabinet is reshuffled, probably not until early next year.
In the same way, Act continues to attack Mallard, after he refused to answer questions about his conduct during the occupation of Parliament grounds.
Both remain vulnerable and for Opposition parties trying to undermine the Prime Minister’s authority they make for irresistible targets.
Brent Edwards is NBR’s political editor.
